An Assessment of the Conflict Cycle of Myanmar
The Myanmar Civil War is the longest war to date. Warring states lead to fragile economies, widespread dissent among citizens, and halt all aspects of the country's development. Myanmar’s economy is the least developed in the region (Aung-Thwin et al., 2024). The constant barrage of military conflicts has changed Myanmar’s development and its ability to establish a stable, peaceful future. In September 2024, the United Nations reported that over 5,350 civilians were killed, 3.3 million more displaced, and 27,400 people were arrested since the most recent coup d'etat in February 2021 (UN, 2024).
The ongoing Civil War has brought immense danger, devastation, and devaluation. This case study will provide background on the conflict, examine the internal and external approaches, and reflect on the lessons to better interpret the conflict cycle in Myanmar.
December 2024
In 1948, Myanmar gained independence from Great Britain. Since then, the country has been battling dictatorship and ongoing Tatmadaw (military) coups d'etat. Myanmar comprises over one hundred ethnicities, which complicates the ability for a sustained insurgency (Steinberg & Aung, 2024). Before February 2021, Myanmar was heading toward a democratic vision, with the National League for Democracy (NLD) paving the path for the second multiparty election. In the 2020 election, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), which was pro-military, claimed that the election was rigged and that all the NLD members were corrupt (Maizland, 2022). As a result, the Tatmadaw detained the leaders of the NLD, arresting their leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, which sparked massive country-wide protests. The Tatmadaw enacted Articles 417 and 418 in the Constitution, allowing the military complete control over the government due to the State of Emergency (Maizland, 2022). The lands in Myanmar became increasingly massacred and devastated. By the end of 2021, 1,500 people were killed, and the National Unity Government (NUG) formed a shadow government (Maizland, 2022).
In 2023, the Three Brotherhood Alliance launched Operation 1027 in the Northern Shan State (Ewe, 2024). Operation 1027 united the insurgency armies and enabled them to control key territories such as Laukkai, a vital commercial town (Kapoor, 2024). The Tatmadaw have gradually lost territories, which prompted them to propose a peace agreement in September 2024 (AFP, 2024). The insurgency groups have ignored the proposed agreement, as it would validate the inhumanity and brutality of the Tatmadaw. Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of the NLD, is still imprisoned, serving her twenty-seven-year sentence for not respecting COVID restrictions (AFP, 2024).
As the fighting continues, the question must be considered: Will there be a future in Myanmar where the states are peaceful and able to coexist? First, recognizing the drivers of the conflict will set the direction for basic understanding. Second, evaluating the in- and out-of-state approaches will illuminate the conflicts' functionality and management. Finally, perspectives on conflict translate into new frames of reference that aim to influence development and reduce conflict.
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